An Overtime Thriller and the Week Ahead
With momentum negative, we head into a busy election and Fed week with questions... but first... what on earth happened in the Strawberries championship?
TIMONIUM, Md. — In a heart-stopping championship that went to "Braveheart" overtime, the second-seeded Black Panthers edged the fourth-seeded Strawberries 3-2 Sunday, concluding one of the most memorable playoff runs in recent Lutherville Recreation League history.
The Strawberries, who had captured international imagination with their Cinderella run to the finals, twice rallied from one-goal deficits to force the dramatic overtime period, where teams play four-on-four without goalkeepers.
After trading possessions in the extra period, the Black Panthers finally broke through for the golden goal, ending the contest.
The Strawberries' Amelia Baldwin, who had prepared for the championship with an intensive Friday training session – defeating her father 3-2 in a full-field scrimmage – showed remarkable resilience. Despite being temporarily sidelined after taking a direct shot to the face, she returned to help fuel her team's comeback efforts.
"I'm not an athlete anymore," Baldwin's father, Garrett, conceded after their pre-championship practice session.
His statement contrasted greatly with his daughter's Saturday performance.
Following the match, players received their finalist medals and celebrated their remarkable season over donuts. This marked the end of a playoff run that included two major upsets and the now-famous "Miracle on Charmuth Road" semifinal victory.
Baldwin won't have much time to rest on her laurels.
The young athlete is scheduled to begin winter soccer training in December, laying the groundwork for transitioning to spring lacrosse season.
Baldwin was still in her soccer uniform, watching Disney television and eating sandwiches at 2:15 pm.
Let’s get to the week ahead.
Monday, November 4
Event: Palantir (PLTR) Earnings Report
Why it matters: The market's favorite mystery box reports earnings. Once the headlines arrive, we'll all pretend to understand what they do.
Republic Speak: Ah, Palantir – the company that saves the world or Skynet in disguise. It just depends on whom you ask. Every earnings call is like a game of corporate Mad Libs: Fill in the blanks with "AI" and "national security."
As I noted two weeks ago, the company is a paradox. It's as if the CIA and Silicon Valley had a baby. But that baby grew up to write costly software.
CEO Alex Karp will bash Silicon Valley while taking their money. He’ll praise democracy while being more secretive than most central planners. He’ll throw around terms like "edge AI" and "computational dominance." You know, the usual.
Did you know their name comes from the all-seeing orbs in "Lord of the Rings?"
Nothing says "trust us with your data" by taking your name from magical surveillance balls.
Tuesday, November 5
Event: U.S. Presidential Election: Harris vs. Trump. No spoilers!!!
Why it matters: Beyond the political circus, this election will determine who guides us through the impending debt-liquidity crisis of 2027-28.
Republic Speak: Welcome to America's new reality show: "Who Wants to Manage an Economic Time Bomb?"
You’re focused on Harris vs. Trump.
But the real action is in the undercard. Who becomes Treasury Secretary? Who will take the Fed Chair in 2026? Because let me tell you something: whoever wins gets to deal with a debt bomb that makes 2008 look like a bounced check.
Our national debt will likely be $45 trillion to $50 trillion by 2028.
That's not a typo—that's a tragedy.
The debt is going parabolic while liquidity is doing its usual cyclical dance, and they're set to crash into each other around 2027-28.
Yeah… an editor said “2027? It sounds like we still have time to party…”
Yes, but I assure you… Life in the markets goes by a lot faster than you think.
And if you’re not prepared now, you’ll think you’re a genius on the way up and double down. Then you could lose it all because you think the “good times” go on forever.
The market doesn't just need a president but a miracle worker.
Doesn’t matter to me. So, I’ll conclude this day with my election yard sign…
“Presidents are Temporary. Wu-Tang is Forever.”
Wednesday, November 6
Event: Energy Transfer (ET) Earnings Report
Why it matters: One of the midstream sector's heavyweights reports earnings amid post-election market reactions.
Republic Speak: Everyone will still be nursing their election hangover.
We probably won’t know who won Pennsylvania yet. But I’ll focus on something that will make people money: midstream energy.
There's always money in the midstream. While tech bros are trying to monetize dog photos with AI, Energy Transfer is out there doing what it does best—moving America's energy from Point A to Point B and collecting toll booth money.
Chairman Kelcy Warren has been buying shares like they're going out of style. This is one of the biggest insider buying sprees of the decade. You might want to pay attention when the guy running the show puts his money where his pipeline is.
Post-election market jitters? ET doesn't care.
Are oil prices falling? ET doesn't care.
Are the Chicago Bears losing?
Plus… this is a great AI play with a solid dividend—no reason to say anymore.
Thursday, November 7
Event: Fed Policy Statement (2:00 PM) and Powell Press Conference (2:30 PM)
Why it matters: The market holds its breath as Powell discusses inflation, the weakening job market, and expectations for the year ahead. Expectations call for a 25-point cut to the Fed Funds Rate.
Republic Speak: If anything takes this market lower, this could be it. We have to pay attention to what he won’t say…
That the Fed's balance sheet is a house of cards.
They're trying to solve 2021's problems with 1980's solutions and…
The real crisis isn't here yet—it'll arrive in 2027-28 when that liquidity cycle hits bottom.
Friday, November 8
Event: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report
Why it matters: This report sets up the chess board for global agricultural markets and 2025 planting decisions. This WASDE report offers post-harvest data.
Republic Speak: This is the Super Bowl of agricultural data. Why? It’s where final harvest numbers meet next year's planting intentions.
It becomes a high-stakes game for farmers of "What should I grow?"
The real fun comes from watching commodity traders try to predict what farmers will do based on what farmers think other farmers will do based on what the report says farmers did.
It's like the movie Inception but with soybeans.
Remember—we’re at FinPub during the week.
We’ll be digging deeper into other opportunities all next week.
Stay positive,
Garrett Baldwin
Ah those days as a jock kid’s dad! Enjoy them while you’ve got them. They do grow up fast. 👍
Hey Garrett, it warmed my cockles to see that joyful picture of you and Emily. The sports piece clearly shows you still harken back to a potential career in sports journalism and would have a been a good one!
I take your point on ET and still hold after you alerted us to it many moons ago. Had to smile at the CIA and Silicon Valley baby metaphor.
I have to confess, your writing always reminds me of how ignorant I am, like so many of your non-American readers, of contemporary Americana culture - (did you enjoy the Dodgers?). I know know a little bit more about rap and the meaning of Wu-Tang to Americans.