Capital Wave - We're Gonna Do This Again?

A confluence of bullish and bearish news... mixed with surging liquidity.

Good morning from Tahoe…

So… we’re going to do this again?

President Trump dropped 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, effective August 1st.

Futures tumbled a tad before most people finished their coffee. (It’s 5 am here and I haven’t slept in two days already.)

All that said… investors are worried that trade wars might derail earnings season and torpedo global growth. The timing couldn't be worse with June's CPI report landing tomorrow. If inflation runs hot again, the Fed gets boxed into a corner while tariffs are already choking growth.

It's like trying to thread a needle while riding a roller coaster.

But liquidity is still rising. Thanks to that injection we started to see three months ago, the Bitcoin lag has kicked in. It’s now rocketed past $120,000 this morning.

Lots of chatter about Crypto Week…

The smart money at Morgan Stanley and UBS thinks markets can weather this storm.

They're betting on strong earnings and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" from July 4th, which gives companies an …