Capital Waves and Market Distortions

A quick follow-up this afternoon as markets remain choppy and signals remain distored a bit... we have to smooth the data a bit.

Good afternoon:

As I noted yesterday, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) started the day up… gapping up in its premarket session. Then, it sold off during the day.

The S&P 500 similarly started Monday with a solid premarket pop as markets celebrated tariff exemptions.

On an intraday basis, this market finished DOWN, not up.

And after hours, we’re seeing more selling.

This isn’t a healthy stock market. We’ve seen no real policy clues that should excite us. Selective tariff exemptions shouldn’t give us warm and fuzzies.

We need a collective victory for the equity market. I don’t care if it comes in the form of a total trade deal or the eventual period when the Fed has to support the market.

Meanwhile, our traditional metrics for identifying breakout stocks and breakdown stocks are a bit distorted.

Simply put, the wild swings in prices have given way to an equation that looks positive. But we need confirmation. As I noted, I’d like to see the FGNA above its 20-day moving average. And I’d l…