Cracks in the Wall

There's something brewing... we saw technology (at the Russell level) and energy both turn negative. The narratives are starting to shift again.

Good morning,

It’s really early in Tahoe…

Over the weekend, I sent a chart alongside six others to my trading recap at TheoTrade that should give us all pause.

The S&P 500 had been riding above its upper Bollinger Band for eight straight sessions, eight consecutive days in what I call the euphoria zone.

The last time we saw this kind of extended stretch was July 2024. What happened next? A swift 10% correction.

The Persistent Problem: Borrowed Momentum

This isn't about predicting crashes.

It's about recognizing a pattern that has persisted for months. In February, we were in a technically overextended, liquidity-driven, algorithmically fueled momentum rally. Today we're in the same thing, something I've termed "borrowed momentum."

If you're new to my analysis, welcome to a distinctly different perspective on the markets. Here's the reality we're facing:

Fundamentals are completely broken.

Liquidity drives equity returns. Passive investing has evaporated price discovery.

We're living in a fin…