Everyone, Everywhere, Now an Expert on Credit Ratings

Now what? Well... it's the same playbook... just more people will soon catch on.

Good morning:

This morning, the Nasdaq Composite is exiting overbought territory, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI).

Before Friday, this signaled that tech stocks may be poised for a near-term consolidation or entering a late-stage euphoric phase.

This follows a blistering rally led by mega-cap names in AI and semiconductors, which has pushed the index to levels that have often preceded pullbacks. While an RSI above 70 traditionally suggests overbought conditions, in liquidity-fueled bull markets, these levels can persist as momentum feeds on itself.

Yet this surge comes amid a contradictory macro backdrop.

Over the weekend, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 for the first time in history, citing fiscal deterioration and rising debt-servicing costs. As I noted yesterday… what was it? The 36.7 trillionth dollar of debt? Or the 36.8 trillionth?

The whole thing is rather comical…

As you know, this doesn’t change much for me. …