Everyone, Everywhere, Now an Expert on Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Oil Exports

This is going to be a long week.

Good morning:

All the war-gaming on the Middle East I did at Johns Hopkins in 2010 is now coming to fruition.

If we were living in a simulation, I should have been richer. And I find it fascinating that we seem to be living in the movie script of Top Gun: Maverick.

So… here we are on June 23…

Yesterday, Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's oil through that narrow passage, 21 million barrels per day.

This is their response to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The final decision lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Now… this isn’t going to do Iran many favors. It will enrage Iraq and Kuwait, hindering their export facilities. It will lock up capital in Dubai, UAE, and Doha, Qatar. And it will create headaches for China.

But there’s a really important element to all this…

Oil stockpiles are high right now. If the Strait stays open, the world will have plenty of oil. But markets panic first a…