Five Things I Think I Think

We're about to have another major exodus of people to Florida, aren't we?

Dear Fellow Expat:

I was really upset when the Hollywood Reporter and the Wall Street Journal dedicated so much time and energy to Jeff Bezos's wedding.

America isn’t supposed to be fascinated by an aristocracy. But we’re turning our billionaires into a version of royalty. Here’s the thing…

I’m not jealous of Bezos. And I’m not criticizing “capitalism.”

I never said "Jeff Bezos stole from us."

I said he built systems that extract value beyond what competitive markets allow.

That's structural rigging - owning the game board, dice, and rulebook simultaneously.

Critiquing this isn't calling for nationalization.

It's demanding actual capitalism.

He knew that monopolies centralized power and destroyed genuine competition.

Questioning how someone got unjustifiably enriched doesn't mean seizing their company.

It means wanting competition, worker protections, and regulatory frameworks that maintain free markets instead of digital fiefdoms.

This shouldn’t be hard for the free-market ideologues to understand.

I’m with you… now go read The Wealth of Nations…

What else do I think this week?

Pretty simple…

No. 2 Thing I Think... Energy Infrastructure is Getting Real Again

A natural gas article caught my attention because it's exactly what happens when ideology crashes into physics.

New York spent years blocking pipeline projects, then acted shocked when it couldn't keep the lights on.

Now that Trump is back, Williams Companies (WMB) is reviving both the Constitution and NESE pipelines.

How hilarious is this?

The smart play here?

EMO (Clearbridge Energy Midstream Opportunity Fund) - a closed-end fund trading at a discount that owns the infrastructure everybody suddenly realizes they need.

When politicians stop virtue signaling and start caring about reliable energy, midstream wins. The fund yields over 9.2% and owns the picks and shovels of America's energy backbone. It also trades at a 7.8% discount to its net asset value.

Here are the holdings - including Williams.

I love this fund…

Largely because reality always wins eventually.

No. 3 Thing I Think... YANG Could Rip Higher on Chinese Delisting Drama

The Chinese delisting theater is heating up again.

ADRs getting booted means forced selling from index funds, creating momentum opportunities.

YANG - the 3x inverse China ETF - is positioned for panic moves when the next wave of delisting announcements hits. It’s hovering right near its 20-day moving average.

This isn't about the companies themselves; it's about structural forced selling creating technical dislocations. KWEB puts work too, but YANG gives you pure momentum exposure when sentiment turns ugly fast. I’d be looking at the very fund if we break key moving averages (especially the 50-day EMA).

The key is timing. This trade works on headlines and fear, not fundamentals. Watch for SEC announcements and trade the volatility, not the value.

Don't hold these leveraged products long-term, but when China FUD peaks, a break in momentum is your friend.

No. 4 Thing I Think... Community Banks Win Big Under Bowman's Deregulation Push

Michelle Bowman's confirmation as Fed Vice Chair for Supervision signals major regulatory relief for regional banks. This is HUGE for investors.

She's targeting the post-2008 rule pile-on that's strangled smaller institutions while big banks hired armies of compliance officers. When community banks can actually compete instead of drowning in paperwork, they outperform.

They know their local markets, have real relationships, and can move faster than the megabanks. Look for regional names to benefit as lending standards normalize and regulatory costs drop. And follow Tim Melvin on smaller community banks.

While everyone focuses on too-big-to-fail institutions, the real banking happens in communities where bankers still know their customers' names.

Deregulation levels the playing field, and that's where the smart money should be positioning.

No. 5 Thing I Think... New York's Tax Exodus Accelerates Regardless of SALT Changes

Goldman's analysis confirms what anyone with eyes can see…

Wealthy New Yorkers are fleeing, and higher SALT deductions won't stop them.

High earners with $1 million AGI grew 40% in New York since 2016, but 150% in Florida, my former state.

Tomorrow's NYC elections could put a Democratic Socialist in power, accelerating this exodus exponentially.

When you can work remotely, why pay confiscatory taxes for deteriorating services?

And when you’re a large institution like a hedge fund, why stay there?

Even a $40,000 SALT cap doesn't change the calculus for the truly wealthy who drive tax revenues.

States like Florida and Texas keep winning because they understand that capital is mobile and taxpayers have choices.

New York's response?

Double down on ideology while the tax base evaporates.

This is a fascinating time to be alive.

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin