Flow: Something Big Is Coming

There’s a calmness in these markets that should give us pause. No positive catalysts lead the risk profiles. There’s inflation, tariffs, and the unknown.

Action to Take: Multiple catalysts compete for attention this morning —peace talks drive dollar weakness while traders brace for new tariffs. Oil is taking another hit, down 1.4%, as the market tries to decide if peace talks mean anything or if this is just another headline-driven mania.

Keep an eye on MicroSectors Oil & Gas 3X ETN (OILU) as geopolitical negotiations unfold. MACD is plunging, MFI is nearing oversold at 32, and ADX signals slight negative momentum. RSI is chopping near 44—if it clears 55, a short squeeze could follow. Otherwise, wait for oversold conditions to grab quality names like EOG, DMLP, and OXY at rare bargain prices.

Surprisingly, both volatility (VIX) and volatility of volatility (VVIX) remain muted, suggesting institutional players aren’t scrambling for protection just yet.

That points to a wait-and-see stance from big money. Stay disciplined and let momentum dictate our next move.

Market outlook:

• Futures Mixed: S&P -3bps, Nasdaq +8bps, Russell +28bps

• Trump-Putin …