Gentle Reminder - Vol Rising
We're still negative, and selling pressure is accelerating... Here's what to watch next.
Dear Fellow Expat:
I will go back out and highlight our Rules for Negative Momentum today in Postcards, but I want to highlight a few things exclusively to you as a member of the Risk Letter.
Volatility is climbing, which is problematic.
As I’ve said, I don’t typically know how or why our signals have gone red until about a week after they happen. I can prognosticate about a few things… China’s economic weakness, rising long-term U.S. bond yields, questions about Fed rate cuts, and lingering issues in Japan.
The more important thing is to look at the outliers, which are screaming at us. Basic materials and energy are in a free fall at the moment. U.S. energy producers like Apache (APA) are seeing tremendous outflows…, and the same goes for oil-field services companies like Schlumberger (SLB).
Private equity giant KKR (KKR) is breaking down, and I haven’t seen a week like this for NVIDIA (NVDA) in a very long time.
(Sidenote: If NVDA gets anywhere near $100, you must buy some and hold)…
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