Great job summarizing the chaos we all call the "world of finance".
I'm also following "The Diary Of A CEO:" and the latest interview of White House war advisor Robert Pape, a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.
Then there is Steve Eisman interviewing Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC (and former CIA analyst), to discuss the ramifications of the war in Iran on his Youtube channel.
It’s not that hard to win a war with asymmetric strategy… every war game I’ve ever played as the B player I’ve won by only focusing on chaos and dislocation.
Garrett - what about Iran’s proposal to allow tankers through the Strait if they pay in Yuan? This is designed to break the petrodollar. Can it work? And what if it does?
Love this info, but 2 bogus stats- office debt is not 8-12%, I'm in the biz and refinancing office projects right now in the high 5's, low 6's. Maybe distressed property is in this range, but 90% is not. Also, credit card debt of $1T is the most overrated stat out there....growing credit card debt is due to use, not because we're borrowing more
I think we might be talking about two different things… It’s not interest rates at 8-12% - it’s delinquencies… That’s in the presentation. That came from Trepp…
The credit card number is from the New York Fed, so I don’t know what other figure to use. Please let me know if you have an alternative dataset to look at, as I’m always interested in data that might counter the Fed.
With the Refi - I have seen a lot of different rates between 6 and 9%. What would you define as the optimal source for those rates? I don’t spend a lot of time in the space, only when it pops up again in the news.
In my experience rates are sofr + 200-260, but trepp is a good source, also MBA, NCREIF, have good info. Sorry I read that 8-12 wrong....I think that's a good number. On the credit card debt, I believe the number is accurate, but it's just how it's interpreted that's the problem, whenever we charge our cards, it goes to this stat, even though we all pay them off monthly. This "debt" has risen because of convenience, we all charge more, not necessarily because debt is rising. Peter Linneman has done good work on this
Oh... I didn't realize that this wasn't a "net debt" figure. I know that the Fed says "credit card balances increased" by $44 billion for the month. That makes a lot more sense... since I'm paying via credit card and then paying off my balance simply so I can get Delta Miles...
Thank you Garrett, stay cool and enjoy Amy playing goalkeeper. The military plans for The Strait on both have escalated rabidly in the few hours since you penned this.
I thought it might be a typo, or just slang that I am not hip to yet. I kinda worked out the meaning from context but didn't want to say something stupid.
Great job summarizing the chaos we all call the "world of finance".
I'm also following "The Diary Of A CEO:" and the latest interview of White House war advisor Robert Pape, a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.
Then there is Steve Eisman interviewing Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC (and former CIA analyst), to discuss the ramifications of the war in Iran on his Youtube channel.
It's a trifecta!
It’s not that hard to win a war with asymmetric strategy… every war game I’ve ever played as the B player I’ve won by only focusing on chaos and dislocation.
People get mad for “violating” rules.
What rules????
Garrett - what about Iran’s proposal to allow tankers through the Strait if they pay in Yuan? This is designed to break the petrodollar. Can it work? And what if it does?
I have to dig into that. If they did that we would bomb them harder.
The dollar is t backed by gold. It’s backed by the military
Maybe that’s why Bessent was stuttering…
Economic pressure is their strongest and most durable leverage. I would expect this is on their list of desirable objectives
Or pay in bitcoin!
Love this info, but 2 bogus stats- office debt is not 8-12%, I'm in the biz and refinancing office projects right now in the high 5's, low 6's. Maybe distressed property is in this range, but 90% is not. Also, credit card debt of $1T is the most overrated stat out there....growing credit card debt is due to use, not because we're borrowing more
Kyle:
I think we might be talking about two different things… It’s not interest rates at 8-12% - it’s delinquencies… That’s in the presentation. That came from Trepp…
The credit card number is from the New York Fed, so I don’t know what other figure to use. Please let me know if you have an alternative dataset to look at, as I’m always interested in data that might counter the Fed.
With the Refi - I have seen a lot of different rates between 6 and 9%. What would you define as the optimal source for those rates? I don’t spend a lot of time in the space, only when it pops up again in the news.
Thanks for the feedback.
-G-
In my experience rates are sofr + 200-260, but trepp is a good source, also MBA, NCREIF, have good info. Sorry I read that 8-12 wrong....I think that's a good number. On the credit card debt, I believe the number is accurate, but it's just how it's interpreted that's the problem, whenever we charge our cards, it goes to this stat, even though we all pay them off monthly. This "debt" has risen because of convenience, we all charge more, not necessarily because debt is rising. Peter Linneman has done good work on this
Oh... I didn't realize that this wasn't a "net debt" figure. I know that the Fed says "credit card balances increased" by $44 billion for the month. That makes a lot more sense... since I'm paying via credit card and then paying off my balance simply so I can get Delta Miles...
Thanks for the clarification...
And this was the Fed data on credit card debt…
https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/credit-card-debt-statistics/
So… this was what I was going off, but I might have misinterpreted soemthing?
https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/office-cmbs-delinquency-hits-an-all-time-high-what-the-data-is-really-saying
Thank you Kyle. I’ll issue a correction.
Everybody knows us goalies are Sigma- thats why the beta's took them out_- they can't cope!
They be coming for us catchers next...
Well, let's get to the important stuff... How did Amelia "Stonewall" Baldwin do in her lacrosse game?? Score was?
Also, check out JUD HARTMANN GALLERY in Blue Hill Maine for great bronze sculptures of Native American Lacrosse players
No goalies… not sure why.
They tied 4-4. One goal… but about 15 shots…
Thank you Garrett, stay cool and enjoy Amy playing goalkeeper. The military plans for The Strait on both have escalated rabidly in the few hours since you penned this.
UUP already trading above $27
Should we look at $28 or $29 calls for 4/17?
I argue it’s best to stay in the money with a fund like this because you’re already benefiting from the leverage and lack of vol
"The world can’t USrd a stronger US dollar..."
Pregunta mas estupida, but what's a "USrd"?
It’s a typo
Supposed to say afford a stronger dollar
I thought it might be a typo, or just slang that I am not hip to yet. I kinda worked out the meaning from context but didn't want to say something stupid.