Japan... and China... and Trump... Oh My.

It's Third Friday... so expect a lot of price action as the day progresses.

Market outlook:

• Futures Up: S&P +7bps, Nasdaq +33bps, Russell +31bps

• Treasury yields edge lower, 10-year at 4.48%, mortgage rates hit 2024 low at 6.85%

• WTI drops to $71.83 amid choppy trade; crude range-bound waiting on OPEC decision, Ukraine talks, and Iranian sanctions

• BOJ ready to intervene as bond yields hit a 15-year high; officials nervous as debt servicing costs threaten fiscal stability

• Walton family loses $19B as Walmart (WMT) plunges 6.5%; weak 2025 guidance and tariff concerns erase $51B in market cap

Upfront

While U.S. markets spin near record highs, China's stimulus story is hitting an inflection point.

What started as skepticism over Beijing's stimulus efforts in October has evolved into something bigger. Since October, the PBOC has injected 4.75 trillion yuan ($660 billion) through outright repos—permanently adding money to the system by buying government bonds, unlike traditional repos, which expire after a set period. Initially, markets shrugged it off, doubting this would ov…