Let's Be Cautious Here

A move back to 5,100 might signal that we're all clear... but it's time to be cautious.

Market outlook:

• The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.21%, its biggest one-day jump since 2022, as hedge funds unwound basis trades and investors raised cash

• Goldman’s latest oil note explores sub-$40 Brent “if everything goes wrong”—a red flag for contrarians who’ve seen this playbook before. Ha.

• China deploys state-backed funds to stabilize markets; $5.7B flows into sovereign ETFs as central bank pledges re-lending support to absorb tariff shock.

• The yuan hit a 19-month low after China nudged its official rate weaker — a small move that hints Beijing may be preparing for a larger devaluation

• Boaz Weinstein warns the trade war could trigger a faster wave of corporate defaults with junk bond spreads now widening at pandemic-era speed

• U.S. Steel (X) jumped 20% after Trump reopened the Nippon Steel deal review, reviving hopes for the stalled $55-per-share buyout