Moving Toward Equilibrium

The market needs a catalyst... I don't see one. In fact, we should start looking out to March - when we'll likely see some banking jitters, tariff woes, and concerns about money market tax drawdowns

Market outlook:

• Futures Are Mixed: S&P -42bps, Nasdaq -77bps, Russell +17bps

• Treasury yields retreat ahead of the refunding announcement. The 10-year is down 5bps to 4.46% as dealers eye a potential pivot from bills to longer-dated debt.

• Dollar gauge snaps six-day advance as tariff delay sparks relief rally

• WTI crude drops 1% to $71.94 after surprise 5M barrel inventory build as China trade war threatens demand

• USPS blocks China packages indefinitely following de minimis rule change; impacts 4M daily parcels as DHL flags service disruptions

• SEC dismantling Gensler-era crypto enforcement unit; new regime shifts focus from enforcement to regulatory clarity

• White House reports 20,000 federal workers accept buyouts ahead of Thursday deadline; falls short of 5-10% target

-----------------------------------

Dear Reader:

I must assemble a “Getting Started” piece for you this month.

That will be essential because I will have a few announcements for you in the weeks ahead about positive developments for …