Postcards: Five Things I Think I Think

We skipped the weekly recap on Sunday so that I could hang out at my family's bar and draft a horrible fantasy football team. You don't need to hear about it.

Dear Fellow Expat:

On Sunday, we held our 18th annual fantasy football draft. I’ve run it off and on for years, but now that I’m home, the commissioner seat is mine again.

We lost a member this year. He passed away, but he was a staple of my league.

I want to honor him with a quick story.

In December 2021, I was on a three-day geopolitical risk project with a European client. They had a lot of exposure to Russia, and the overall expectation was that Putin would invade very soon. I believed it would happen because my friend and business partner told me he was 85% confident that the war would happen in October of that year.

We were assessing their assets.

What could they sell? What should they dump? Would they be exposed to international sanctions?

On a Sunday morning… I hadn’t slept - as I was writing up a long list of shipping companies that were set to face challenges due to Russia’s invasion.

It’s now about noon, and I’m on a call with the client.

My phone starts ringing—it won’t sto…