Postcards: It Already Happened

If you're wondering if you should suddenly short bonds or short oil, the simple answer is... No. The price movement has already happened. Here's how to tell exactly when it's time to do so.

Dear Fellow Expat:

“I’m thinking about buying a home in Naples,” a familiar voice said last month. “We’d probably move there by February.”

“Why?” I asked…

“It’s a great market. Home prices are holding up,” he said. “Everyone’s moving there…”

The list went on and on… And of course…

Everyone else is doing it!

If you analyze these sentences, I direct you to the willing buyer’s sentiment.

He’s considering moving here because home prices are up, and it’s a great market.

Okay. Well, what about the future? Can one predict the future?

Can one reasonably say that it’s a good idea NOW? Because all the decisions being made are based on various human biases.

The decisions are based on things that already happened.

This is a trap too many investors and speculators fall into.

They read a headline a month after a major development… or big price movement… and get an incredible “Fear of Missing Out.”

Or FOMO.

For example, they might be reading about the power of AI… and want to buy NVIDIA (NVDA) well after it’s jum…