Postcards: It Already Happened (Part 2)

Weak growth, high inflation, higher for longer? We've seen this story before, and many people were caught off guard yet again. Plus - Pandemic COVID buys come home to roost.

Market Update: No surprise today on GDP or the core inflation numbers for the First Quarter are higher than expected.

We have the PCE for April about to drop - and we should be in for a ride. I can’t trust many government entities anymore on their official data figures after this “Super Users” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We had our primary warning sign at Republic Risk Letter - telling investors to hedge on April 4. Then, we saw a negative signal come in hard and fast on April 12. We saw an oversold bottom and a bull trap back to the 50-day - as we projected - and now a hard and fast drop that seems to have caught many people by surprise. So, let’s go through this one more time.

Dear Fellow Expat:

We released a simple article on October 4, 2023, as the market continued to slide into higher interest rates and what resembled a U.S. GILT moment.

It was called “It Already Happened.”

This was not just a reminder that our Equity Strength Signal had turned red. It was a reminder tha…