Postcards (Part 2): The 3 PM, Post Fed Slide - Extreme Caution Ahead

This is why we play defense... on days like today. For the last few days, we've discussed that top-like behavior. Now, the fear of "higher for longer" returns to the narrative, and wipes out FOMO

Into the High Caution Area, We Go… There are Bull Traps Ahead…

Dear Fellow Expat:

As I’ve said in the last few days, this all feels familiar.

I’m doing my best to help as many people navigate what’s happening - regardless if they’re paying subscribers. Because what just happened in the last 60 minutes is a perfect example of what I’m talking about when we discuss institutional selling.

After the Fed minutes, we saw a big rip higher… and some language out of media suggesting that the markets were okay with what they read. No.

That’s not how any of this works. And we’re starting to see the reactions of the previous selloffs that took this market lower in January 2022, April 2022, August 2022, and August 2023.

This is VERY familiar to us, and when we have these short-term spikes, we start to see some opportunistic selling.

If we look at the various oscillators in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) - you’ll see the trend is not pretty at the moment.

Here’s the SPY. We’re …