Postcards: Sunk Costs at the Off Track Betting

Well, that was a bad time.

Dear Fellow Expat:

Nick’s Grandstand is a crab house/seafood restaurant in the middle of a horse track.

It’s the kind of place you'd venture into if you were feeling a bit adventurous, like when the world is ending and you need to make a bet.

There’s an “Off-Track-Betting” on the location.

It’s chock full of men foaming at the mouth - holes in their Walmart sweatpants - swearing at thoroughbreds through cracked flat-screen televisions.

The type of crowd that would eat tin cans or discarded lottery tickets if you bribed them.

In what is one of the most confounding uses of real estate, Timonium, Maryland, has a massive horse racing track that’s only used for a week each year during the state fair.

Why does this exist?

To boost the cash flow of this very expensive real estate, they opened Nick’s and an OTB location a few years ago. It has the feel that people receive a fine if they smile in there. Nobody’s happy.

Well… as you know, I like blue crabs.

So, I went there tonight since it’s just a mile from my house.

Proximity trumped quality.

Huge blunder.

When I arrived, a kitchen staff member was yelling at the female bartender in a way that I can only describe as the plot of “Sleeping with the Enemy.”

He’d left an “exacta” ticket on the bar worth $80, and she threw it away (or so he claims). The problem was that she was so drunk - she couldn’t even respond to him.

I’d asked her for a glass of water and a half dozen crabs.

She was in the trash can for 15 minutes looking for the kitchen attendant’s ticket.

Then she fell over. I’m unsure if she got back up. Everyone else was screaming at the “4 horse” at Canterbury Park.

I decided that this dining experience was what we call a sunk cost.

So, I left.

And I went to the one place that I can always count on.

Ocean Pride in Lutherville.

The crabs are on the way.

Sunk Costs and Seafood

I lost 15 minutes of my time. I wouldn’t allow it to dictate the rest of the my night.

As investors, we have to know what sunk costs are.

They’re one of the most treacherous traps ever laid by the infernal mind of man.

A sunk cost is steeped in folly, a belief that money or time already spent or invested—no matter how irretrievable—should somehow weigh on one’s future decisions.

In the murky world of the stock market, sunk costs can become a delusion.

Because you've already poured your hard-earned coin into a particular stock… you must, therefore, cling to it. Pray for it to bounce back.

Otherwise, you believe that you’ve "wasted" your investment.

Here’s the thing: The market is as indifferent as a block of marble.

It doesn’t care if you’ve already lost.

To persist in holding a failing company just because you’ve already suffered is to throw good money after bad, a fool’s errand that leads only to deeper despair.

If such a thing exists, true wisdom in the market lies in the ruthless ability to sever ties with a losing venture. To walk away.

To say, “Well, that stunk.”

The moment a stock ceases to serve your interests, to provide the returns or the prospects for which you bought it, is when you should cut it loose.

The lost dollars should be treated as gone, vanished into the ether. Your focus must be on the here and now, on the opportunities that lie before you.

Whether it’s investments or relationships, money and time are assets difficult to replace.

Don’t hold onto a stock that’s down 25% if you can’t reasonably see a pathway to the company performing better in the future.

As I noted, it’s critical to be confident and able to explain exactly how the company will enhance its shareholder value in the future and generate additional returns.

That requires research.

If only there were a service that provided ample insights in bite-sized packages to help you maximize your time and build that conviction. What would we call that…

Republic Risk sounds like a good name.

In short, do not let your past follies dictate your future actions.

The sunk cost is a siren, singing a song of regret and misplaced loyalty.

Cover your ears and sail towards clearer, more prosperous waters.

And of course, stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin

Secretary of Seafood Procurement