Postcards: That A-Ha Moment (We're Live Early)

People always ask me: Why do you do what you do? What do you have to say? The answer came earlier this week when energy momentum turned negative, and we saw a decline across the sector. Defense.

Nice squeeze today, huh? Today’s pop was largely due to a sharp decline in selling.

We’re still negative…

Dear Fellow Expat:

A few days ago, I received a text from one of my closest friends.

His words dramatically improved my mood.

He said my recent article on the energy sector had made him think twice about buying oil stocks over the last two weeks.

Remember – everyone’s been bullish. And the headlines rang about $125 per barrel crude by the end of the year.

But… and this is important – I noted a similarity between June 8, 2022, and recent price momentum moves in recent weeks.

The counternarrative was born.

After our energy sector signal went negative on Monday, October 2, oil has cratered, taking names like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and many others much lower.

He said I’d saved him a lot of money.

This validated much of the academic and market work I’ve done for the last decade.

I’m a very defensive-minded person.

I played goalie in every sport that had one. I had more control of the game by playing d…