Republic Risk: A Lehman Moment Seems Inevitable Now...

The Bank of Japan is a problem... and it's just a matter of time before things do get ugly. That will likely be after the first rate cut. Follow our signals.

Equity Storm Watch Is RED on the S&P 500 and RED on the Russell 2000

Give yourself a pat on the back—you survived the carry crash of 2024. 

Just remember that volatility is still at 24. And trading vol is still difficult.

This morning, markets are nearly back to where they sold off from early Monday, with the S&P 500 at 5319 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) right at 450. 

The market managed to claw back these losses largely thanks to dovish statements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, who promised to address any underlying issues. This market was starving for any morsel of positivity and took statements like the one from Deputy Governor Uchida—'the BOJ will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable'—as a dovish tone, completely ignoring the fact that last week's rate hike came while markets were chugging along. Uchida literally said nothing, and the markets cheered, reeking of desperation. So, before you get all charged up and head…