Republic Risk Letter: An Alligator on a Surf Board

Insider buying? 2023 Ratio Highs. SPY/QQQ Signals? Positive. Stimulus? Coming. Bond yields? Lower. Let's get to work...

Dear Fellow Expat:

We start today with a very simple image.

We want to ride a wave… but the CPI this morning could spoil our party.

At the end of yesterday, equity signals hit Green on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 after yesterday’s bounce after the Fed minutes.

At 1:50 p.m. yesterday, I was live with the Flashpoint Elite audience and bid from a familiar place—the second standard deviation band on the bottom of the screen. I bought the $434 call at about 55 cents… and took gains early as the show ended.

That’s a sizable rebound in just two hours.

But that $434 call finished the day at $3.00 (this is a core lesson in trading.)

It was a very good day - not only did the market rally… but it developed a positive signal for the end of the day and set us up with a little more conviction.

This morning, the Consumer Price Index figure for September arrived.

The consensus here was 3.6%. Of course… it came in at 3.7%. We’ll see if the market can shrug off this news or if there will be a break under resistance.

Key Takeaways This Morning