Republic Risk: Oh Hi, Jerome (Monday Issue)

They're calling this the market's most important summer week. I'm calling it a time to reset expectations for the months ahead.

Equity Storm Watch Is RED on the S&P 500 and GREEN on the Russell 2000

Can Jerome Powell and his merry band of central bankers help turn this market around this week? Investors will hope so as they look for Powell's comments after Wednesday's FOMC meeting, signaling that the worst is behind us and that the Fed is prepared to pivot on its key policy rate by as early as September. 

There is very little chance Powell will cut the rate at this meeting. I put the odds that we get BACK into Green with the SPY and the NASDAQ over the next few days - ahead of Powell’s talk - and then we have another spill lower - back into the red. I’m selling put spreads around the 100-day moving average of stocks, where I expect any selloff to consolidate.