Republic Risk: On the Verge of 5,000...
It's hard to imagine after that October bond selloff that the S&P 500 is back at all-time highs and about to breach a vaulted number. Thanks central banks... thanks momentum... thanks short-covering.
Equity Storm Warning Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.
Each morning, we assess the full flows of the market by measuring statistical and technical metrics to determine broader market sentiment and the Equity Strength trend. When these readings turn red, we focus on cash, build trades around positive sectors, or take inverse positions against indices. When it is positive, we focus on short-squeeze stocks, companies with improving fundamentals, and trading/investing around the actions of corporate insiders.
We’re back at record highs, and the S&P 500 is now knocking on the doorstep of 5,000. We’ve seen an enhancement in global liquidity, as measured by Michael Howell, and markets continue to cheer earnings reports. It’s a bit unnerving to be honest because of China’s financial woes and supply chain problems in the Red Sea that could fuel another wave of inflation and longer-rate expectations.
The Tamiami Tip Line:
Amid economic pressures, China is taking decisive steps to stabilize its financial markets: securities regulators are directing hedge funds to curtail short selling in stock index futures, while the People's Bank of China cuts reserve requirements to free up $140 billion, aiming to bolster the economy and support the stock market. This is bullish for names like Baidu (BIDU), which popped 7% on Tuesday.
Netflix's (NFLX) fourth quarter subscriber growth and revenue exceeded forecasts with 13.12 million new additions and revenue at $8.83 billion, lifting the stock price 10% in after-hours and premarket trading. This is a pure momentum play that has recovered strongly from the October 2023 lows. We’ll be looking to ride NFLX during the next dip and rip in the market.
EBay (EBAY) plans to cut 9% of its workforce, approximately 1,000 full-time jobs, in an attempt to align expenses with business growth, contributing to a 3% rise in after-hours. The reductions in workforces are starting to accelerate - and we should see the possibility of a very low number for new jobs in March - which may prompt the Fed to act on rate cuts despite threats around inflation.
Additionally, the Los Angeles Times is undergoing a major staff reduction, planning to lay off over 20% of its newsroom, which translates to at least 115 employees, marking one of the largest cuts in the newspaper's 143-year history.
Dear Fellow Expat:
Good morning from Baltimore. Who sleeps well in a hotel in Baltimore? Not this guy.
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