Republic Risk: Onto the Second Quarter

Gold prices hit new records... momentum remains strong... and earnings season approaches while investors anticipate rate cuts.

Equity Storm Watch Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and GREEN on the Russell 2000

We enter the second quarter with the Dow Jones back at the 40,000 level. The S&P 500 is now above 5,300, and the 10-year bond is at 4.23%. That latter figure will be the most important across the second quarter. We head into a period where the U.S. Treasury must start to aggressively refinance a significant amount of debt. Can they attract investors in this range, or will the 10-year start to experience a gradual upward shift while the Fed continues to fight inflation? This comes when some notable traders expect a break in the Dollar-Euro spreads, which have been narrowing since October. This could be a significant event over the next month - mainly driven by inflation expectations and Friday’s jobs report. 

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Dear Fellow Expat: 

We’ll avoid any hijinks (we got those out of our system) and get serious about the market's state. The big news today is the ongoing surge in the price of gold. 

Rising geopo…