Republic Risk: Options Expiration...

Look out as we move toward Quad Witching in September...

Equity Storm Watch Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and YELLOW on the Russell 2000

Two days ago, fears were recessionary, and now we’re back in the soft landing zone. Keep up—the rounds of musical chairs are accelerating, and the difficulty is notching up.

A week's worth of positive economic data, starting with cooling inflation numbers that support the growing narrative around the Fed beginning to cut rates—albeit still premature—to surprisingly strong retail numbers that dispel any idea that the country is crawling to a standstill, have helped snap this market back into form.

Two weeks ago's yen carry unwind, which saw upwards of $500 billion rush offshore after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, has very naturally found its way back, pouring into U.S. assets as global investors seek stability and growth opportunities.

America remains the cleanest shirt in the laundry.

This was a momentary reset of the game. A sudden central bank decision caused the music to stop, and a mad dash for chairs …