Republic Risk: Recovery Near Complete?

SPY and QQQ are trying to claw back to a positive MACD after hitting oversold last week. That's been the play over the last two years.

Equity Storm Watch Is RED on the S&P 500 and RED on the Russell 2000

The market remains overwhelmed by fear in the wake of last Monday’s parabolic rise in volatility. It was the second-largest rise on record for the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) since 2018 and brought us a shakeup that rivaled the 1987 market crash and the Great Financial Crisis. A tiny uptick in Japan’s currency movements helped trigger this massive swell. 

Fortunately, our signal turned Red two Thursdays ago, helping us prepare and hedge for any event. Once again, this tracked fund flows and volatility and appears to have done its job ahead of time. We’ll see how the market now behaves, but I expect some choppiness and concerns about global system stability. This was a “House of Cards” moment - and we have to be on extreme alert - especially with NVIDIA reporting earnings and the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting in a few weeks.

The SPY is coming off last week's oversold status. MFI and SPY. That bounceback is starting to lo…