Republic Risk: Simplifying the Complicated Next Steps…

It's tax season. There. That's the problem for the markets. Can I get breakfast?

Equity Storm Watch Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and YELLOW on the Russell 2000

There has been a big surge in sales in the underbelly of the Russell 2000, emphasizing financial blockchain names and some consumer cyclicals. The Russell 2000 is under its 20-day moving average, and looking for a positive catalyst. The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) is still above its 20-day moving average. I’m watching the ADX, which is nearly neutral right now. The issue - as I’ll explain - is in the money markets and the banking system right now. It’s Tax Season, everyone… that’s bad for liquidity in the U.S. financial system. Technology and financials are back under pressure.

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Dear Fellow Expat: 

Let’s try to break down what is happening and why it matters. 

And try my best not to get too “wonky.”

Yesterday, I explained that today’s market is similar to the market of April 2022. What do the two have in common? 

JPMorgan did a somewhat good job explaining the obvious. Rate cut expectations have returned t…