Republic Risk: The “Official” Worldview of the Florida Republic

People have asked how we see the markets. Once you see our worldview, you cannot unsee how the plumbing works and the behaviors of key decision makers.

Equity Index Strength Is GREEN on the S&P 500 and GREEN on the Russell 2000

Each morning, we assess the full flows of the market by measuring statistical metrics on a very specific number of stocks to determine broader sentiment and the momentum trend. When these readings turn red, we focus on cash, build trades around positive sectors, or take inverse positions against indices. When it is positive, we focus on short-squeeze stocks, companies with improving fundamentals, and trading/investing around the actions of corporate insiders.

We’re still green. 

We’re closely monitoring developments in the Red Sea that impact global shipping and oil transit. Shippers have suspended travel through the Red Sea due to ongoing attacks by the Houthis. My warning is not to chase higher oil prices today but to focus on what the market offers you.

Remember the Buffett Buy Zone? That’s an excellent simple trade with a high probability of success and a solid level of protection perhaps out to the $50-$52.50 level in February. There’s too much noise here, and we want to sell premium - not speculate wildly. Here’s a recap of that trade. 

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