Republic Risk: The Recession Warning...

Is the latest "recession" indicator just another theory that is about to go bust, or is something really bad on the horizon?

Equity Storm Watch Is RED on the S&P 500 and RED on the Russell 2000

Equities are ticking up this morning, with stocks, Treasury yields, and the dollar all climbing as the market gears up for the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM. I've been warming up by yelling into my pillow this morning, gearing up for every time I see a headline calling the PPI a measure of wholesale prices—something it hasn't been since the disco era. It helps blow off a little steam but does nothing to change the fact that these numbers are cooked to protect the politicians and career bureaucrats driving our country off a cliff. Remember, the real inflation rate is way higher than they tell us. 

According to the Chapwood Index, it's sitting at about 12% where I live in Baltimore.

Early trading has been mixed so far. Home Depot (HD) is lower this morning after slashing its forecast for the year as consumers continue tightening their belts.  

Oil had a strong showing yesterday, driven by rising tens…