Republic Risk: When Good News is Bad News

Wages are slowing... and so too is hiring. That's a problem for Americans... but not for the stock market.

Equity Storm Watch Is YELLOW on the S&P 500 and YELLOW on the Russell 2000

Treasuries rose for the 4th consecutive day, driving yields to the lowest levels in more than a week, following US manufacturing data that shows shrinking factory activity and weakening output.  Longer-dated bonds led the market, with 30-year yields dropping as much as ten basis points. Odds for a rate cut before year-end grow, with an increasing likelihood of a move as soon as September, helping Treasuries build on recent gains. The sudden move for safety has momentum on edge as investors digest a slew of employment data dropping throughout the week. Today's report shows that payroll company ADP showed a slowdown in hiring and wage growth. 

What to Do Today: Hedge. And pay close attention to the 20-day moving average on Ardmore Shipping (ASC). This has been our top performer in 2024. However, a move under 20 days might lead to more sales. We’re keeping it in the portfolio - but you must manage your portfolio and…