S&P 500 - Green, QQQ Green, Russell On Verge

A screamer of inflows and a huge drop in selling

Dear Fellow Expat:

I wait until 10 am to confirm volume and see sustainable flows. This is starting to feel like 2% day for the S&P 500.

I can’t ignore what has happened in the last 30 minutes. Bitcoin’s scream above $101,000 signifies that we’re back in risk-taking territory. Volume on the SPY is at 1.36x relative volume - which is significant given where we sat a week ago.

Strong inflows kicked off the second week of the year from Tesla (TSLA) to Nvidia (NVDA). There’s been a sizeable move on the ATR (average true range) for the S&P 500 (SPY), and we’re about to turn the corner on the MACD after three weeks of gruesome market activity.

The major risks remain the same: China, the dollar, tariffs, and interest rates. It’s uncertain if this is a short-term covering, but I can’t ignore the move higher to start the day.

There is also still weakness in the consumer cyclical names (especially cruise stocks). This matters because those cruise names are typically momentum stocks.

Eyeing the Rus…