Sorry Fed, the Recession Odds are Now 99%

The Fed says recession odds are only 68%. Not even closer. Go higher, Jerome.

We’ve had three straight banner years for the Federal Reserve. 

In 2021, they said there would be “transitory inflation.”

In 2022, they said we’d see no recession. 

In 2023, they now say there isn’t a banking crisis – yet a panic is in play. 

Against the backdrop of these swings and misses, we have a new chart from the New York Federal Reserve that should make Jerome Powell’s face turn ghost white.

The probability of recession, as predicted by the Treasury spread. As you can see… it puts the recession probability in April 2024 at 68.2%.

Pay closer attention, though – and you’ll see something even more distressing. 

The odds are now the highest we’ve seen for a recession since 1982. 

That was an especially NASTY period in history as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates well above the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to stamp out recession once-and-for-all. 

Today, the Fed funds rate is still just in line with inflation – and Atlanta Fed Bank President, Raphael Bostic, says the Fed might not be d…