This isn't over...

Are we going to renegotiate a renegotiation?

Action to take: With momentum turning negative and funding markets under stress, it's time to revisit our capital protection playbook.

For newer readers who haven’t navigated these conditions with us before, we follow a straightforward set of rules that have helped us sidestep every major downturn over the past two and a half years. The key is patience—negative momentum can last a day or a month, so stay tuned to our signals. Markets can shift quickly; sharp, short squeezes often follow green switches.

As we push against resistance from Sunday’s selloff, traders should look for a clear break above $603 with follow-through to suggest the S&P has turned the corner. QQQ traders should monitor $524. Until then, there's nothing wrong with stepping aside. Take a break, hit the gym, read a book - you’ll hear from me the moment green momentum returns. We’ve got you covered.

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Market outlook:

• Futures Flat: S&P -5bps, Nasdaq +10bps, Russell 2bps

• …