Waiting on the Fed

Fed Minutes arrive tomorrow. Aside from that, we're at the mercy of a lower volume environment.

Action to Take: We start the week cautiously, as futures point to record highs for the S&P and Nasdaq. Something feels off here—despite the bullish setup, we're not seeing the typical rush of capital that comes with market highs. With the VIX at 15.50, it feels like major institutions are holding back, causing the move to lack conviction.

Conditions are technically ripe for a bull run over the next few weeks. Still, a lack of natural catalysts and growing uncertainty around tariffs suggest taking it easy before jumping in with both feet. This is a good environment for traders, and I think we’re fast approaching a period when the focus will shift toward consumer defensives. We are still in the commodities cycle right now, and I remain bullish on gold.

If you must dance, stick close to the exit. Keep following our signals and watch volatility closely. We are at a pivotal level, and a move in either direction should define our next trend.

Market outlook:

• Futures are Higher: S&P +38bps, Nasda…