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Joe Duarte's avatar

Short squeezes are our best friends in this market.

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Jeff Page's avatar

Ya think I need some help here? From Rails to Robotics: A Historical Arc of American Industry and Dow Theory

The Age of Railroads (Early 1800s–Late 1800s)

The industrial awakening of the United States began with the expansion of railroads in the early 19th century. The completion of the Transcontinental Railroad in 1869 unified east and west, creating a national market. Railroads revolutionized transportation, cut costs, and dramatically sped up commerce. Dow Theory, later articulated by Charles H. Dow in the late 1800s, took cues from the interplay between railroads (transportation) and industrial production, suggesting that when both sectors rose together, economic expansion was underway.

Electrification and Mass Production (1880s–1930s)

Electrification reshaped American industry. Utilities grew, and electrified factories boosted productivity. Simultaneously, Henry Ford’s 1913 assembly line revolutionized automobile production, setting new standards for efficiency. Electrification also extended to homes, changing labor patterns and consumption habits. Dow Theory matured in this period, tracking the industrials and transport indexes to anticipate economic cycles.

Agricultural Shift and Mechanization (1930s–1950s)

The Dust Bowl and Great Depression accelerated rural-to-urban migration. Mechanized farming (tractors, combines) displaced millions of agricultural workers, driving them into cities. Companies like Caterpillar thrived, producing equipment essential to infrastructure and farming transformation. Electrification expanded via New Deal programs like the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), bringing power to rural areas and fueling industrial growth.

Post-War Manufacturing Boom and Decline (1945–1971)

America emerged from World War II as an industrial giant, holding more than 50% of global manufacturing capacity by 1945. U.S. aid programs like GARIOA (1946) and WEECA (1948) aimed to rebuild Europe and create demand for American goods. The manufacturing sector peaked through the 1950s and 60s, but global competition and rising labor costs began eroding dominance. Dow Theory remained a key analytical tool on Wall Street, interpreting transport-industrial correlations amid a changing world economy.

The Gold Standard Exit and Exporting Inflation (1971–2000)

In 1971, President Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold, effectively dismantling the Bretton Woods system. This unshackled U.S. monetary policy and triggered inflation. Corporations, facing high domestic costs, began offshoring production, particularly to Asia. Manufacturing in the U.S. declined steadily, while imports surged. The U.S. began exporting inflation—outsourcing production while maintaining consumption.

The Silicon Age: From Microchips to Moon Landings (1958–1990s)

In 1958, Jack Kilby invented the integrated circuit, launching the modern computing era. The U.S. raced to the Moon with Apollo missions, leveraging advanced aerospace manufacturing and early computing. The digital revolution began to reshape labor needs, emphasizing technical skills and phasing out traditional manufacturing roles. Dow Theory struggled to track these non-industrial shifts, as software and semiconductors didn't fit neatly into its original framework.

21st Century: Automation, AI, and Reshoring (2000–Today)

The 21st century introduced another paradigm shift—automation, robotics, and AI began displacing human labor across industries. Global shocks like the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 disrupted supply chains, reigniting interest in **resh

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