Where the Market Goes Next...

It's not just about headlines... it's about math.

Good morning:

I hope your day is off to a great start. I went to the Orioles game last night with my father, and we had a great time. Unfortunately, they lost. But we got to talk for a few hours about life and baseball cards.

We wake up, a bit tired, to the state of affairs. I won’t be able to break down inflation this morning, as I’m going on air as usual at 8:45.

CPI will drive the day… while the markets attempt to understand what’s happening between the U.S. and China. There are clear reports of a deal on rare earth materials…

But we lack details. The market needs specifics. And when we lack details, there always remains room for volatility via next steps or backtracking.

At its core… three things. What’s on tap:

• Sentiment Shift: A credible trade pause could boost risk appetites—if the CPI does not confirm inflation fears.

• Fed Guidance: Sticky inflation may push the Fed to delay cuts, while tame numbers could embolden rate easing later this year.

• Volatility Outlook: Markets may stay su…