Why Silver Has $40+ Upside by March

It’s 2011 all over again… which means I need to get back to turning my body into a weapon so that I can handle this debt ceiling crisis.

Action to Take: Yesterday's move brought us back to equilibrium. Nasdaq managed to break its January resistance, but the S&P still needs to clear $611 for confirmation. Though volatility is remarkably calm, price action must prove itself first. Traders can play the $611 break if it comes, but long-term investors should wait for our momentum signal to flip green on the daily officially. That means intraday signals are only an advanced warning and can still turn over before the day is through. Wait for our signal to be green at the close of the market. With tariffs pushed to April and no Fed noise for a while, we might finally get that sustained move higher, but remember – opportunities could be limited this year, so timing matters.

Market outlook:

• Futures Mixed: S&P -14bps, Nasdaq -15bps, Russell +8bps

• WTI crude steadies at $71.84 as Treasury Secy as Bessent signals tougher Iran export stance; targets 100K barrel daily cap

• Treasury yields settle back at 4.53% after inflation-driven volatility; traders parse PPI for clues of potential PCE softness

• Dollar index drops to two-month low amid fading tariff concerns; slides 2.5% from February peak as traders view threats as negotiating tactic

• Trump administration begins federal layoffs as 75,000 accept buyouts; Education, SBA, and Energy departments targeted in reduction

• Riot Platforms (RIOT) adds three AI-focused directors after Starboard, D.E. Shaw pressure; exploring HPC conversion at Texas facility

• Kalshi prediction markets now see a 23% probability of 2025 rate hikes as inflation surges. It also has a 63% of a government shutdown.

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Dear Reader:

I’m seeing a lot of warnings out there among the people I read on the fringes.

The argument goes that gold purchases and a slide in revolving credit signal that the financial markets will soon face stress.

They’re basing this entirely on data parsed from just before COVID-19 and warning that a trade crisis is brewing. Silver prices are breaking out again, too. It’s up 11.3% in a month.

Let’s start with trade.