Agree with everything you say but looking for specific companies and/or funds to put my funds. Do you have a list of specific companies/funds to consider?
Devil's advocate here. This buying America's infrastructure approach would be disrupted if the AI boom is as successful in reducing knowledge workers (and then robots reducing skilled labor workers) as its advocates state (and apparently corporations are counting on for the next quantum leap in productivity that justifies stock prices). Musk and Altman regularly discuss universal basic income and then when that looks too grim offer universal high income. You can also see this less publicly discussed by Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon CEOs which started with not hiring replacements but is now moving to huge workforce cuts to " focus more financial resources on winning the AI race". It’s even being discussed on the Daily Show and Reddit so not exactly a fringe view anymore that AI may be highly disruptive to work force and the infrastructure that we might have thought was "forever" (e.g., parking in Chicago, toll roads, etc.). So yes to energy in theory but even there, co-located nuclear reactors might bypass pipelines and utilities?
Of course this begs the question of who will be buying anything if large fractions of the work force are displaced?
This is the right question - but this feeds into the thesis. Let's say there is a massive deflationary wave linked to AI.
What will we need to do? Loosen monetary policy, print money, and do UBI.
Who wins? Asset holders of real things - as the value of those assets go up both in real terms and nominally.
We've already seen this playbook... In the 1990s with the inclusion of Chinese workers to the global work force, the deflationary impact of the Berlin Wall falling, and the deflation tied to e-commerce.
The Fed HAS to paper over deflation with inflationary policy. It's been baked in since the 1990s with inflation targeting. Look at housing prices since... look at the things that matter... food, infrastructure, electricity, and education.
Jeff Booth has written about this in The Price of Tomorrow. I wrote a column on this a few years ago.
The reality is that this financial system CANNOT stand deflation because it creates liquidity crises. So, when the money printer is turned on... it only makes this stuff and the cash flow (inflation protected) that much more valuable.
We are steering to the point where all new wealth created (assets minus liabilities) goes directly to the asset holders. That becomes feudalism. And if they can't keep the game going with free money via UBI... it only ends one way...
Wow. I already had a lot of respect for you based on your 2025 writing but that link to your 2021 view is impressive. Still processing what to do with it.
Good analysis. When the Government announces massive foreign "investment" like it's a prize they are bringing us the devil is in the details.... Just another example of big $ sucking the blood out of us. But I guess the important thing is that they don't send us any immigrants, not the fact that our autonomy is being gutted. But let us all not forget to continue to worship at the alter of rapacious capitalism.
Agree with everything you say but looking for specific companies and/or funds to put my funds. Do you have a list of specific companies/funds to consider?
Devil's advocate here. This buying America's infrastructure approach would be disrupted if the AI boom is as successful in reducing knowledge workers (and then robots reducing skilled labor workers) as its advocates state (and apparently corporations are counting on for the next quantum leap in productivity that justifies stock prices). Musk and Altman regularly discuss universal basic income and then when that looks too grim offer universal high income. You can also see this less publicly discussed by Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon CEOs which started with not hiring replacements but is now moving to huge workforce cuts to " focus more financial resources on winning the AI race". It’s even being discussed on the Daily Show and Reddit so not exactly a fringe view anymore that AI may be highly disruptive to work force and the infrastructure that we might have thought was "forever" (e.g., parking in Chicago, toll roads, etc.). So yes to energy in theory but even there, co-located nuclear reactors might bypass pipelines and utilities?
Of course this begs the question of who will be buying anything if large fractions of the work force are displaced?
This is the right question - but this feeds into the thesis. Let's say there is a massive deflationary wave linked to AI.
What will we need to do? Loosen monetary policy, print money, and do UBI.
Who wins? Asset holders of real things - as the value of those assets go up both in real terms and nominally.
We've already seen this playbook... In the 1990s with the inclusion of Chinese workers to the global work force, the deflationary impact of the Berlin Wall falling, and the deflation tied to e-commerce.
The Fed HAS to paper over deflation with inflationary policy. It's been baked in since the 1990s with inflation targeting. Look at housing prices since... look at the things that matter... food, infrastructure, electricity, and education.
Jeff Booth has written about this in The Price of Tomorrow. I wrote a column on this a few years ago.
https://luckboxmagazine.com/topics/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-deflation/
The reality is that this financial system CANNOT stand deflation because it creates liquidity crises. So, when the money printer is turned on... it only makes this stuff and the cash flow (inflation protected) that much more valuable.
We are steering to the point where all new wealth created (assets minus liabilities) goes directly to the asset holders. That becomes feudalism. And if they can't keep the game going with free money via UBI... it only ends one way...
1793, 1917, 1949.
Print the money or start a revolution...
That's just reality now.
Wow. I already had a lot of respect for you based on your 2025 writing but that link to your 2021 view is impressive. Still processing what to do with it.
Good analysis. When the Government announces massive foreign "investment" like it's a prize they are bringing us the devil is in the details.... Just another example of big $ sucking the blood out of us. But I guess the important thing is that they don't send us any immigrants, not the fact that our autonomy is being gutted. But let us all not forget to continue to worship at the alter of rapacious capitalism.