Didn’t Mike Burry have to cajole banks into selling him MBS insurance? And then banks ramped up selling cheap insurance? Which almost lead to a Nobel Prize on the hypothesis that cheap insurance meant housing was solid? And of course banks got killed when they had to pay up on cheap insurance?
It makes my head hurt also. If something can’t go on forever, it won’t. Keep one hand hovering on the sell key and the other on the door out.
Didn’t Mike Burry have to cajole banks into selling him MBS insurance? And then banks ramped up selling cheap insurance? Which almost lead to a Nobel Prize on the hypothesis that cheap insurance meant housing was solid? And of course banks got killed when they had to pay up on cheap insurance?
1. Is debt growth outpacing earnings growth: YES
2. Is leveraged finance growing faster than high-quality credit: YES
3. Is M&A activity above long-term trend: YES
4. Is sponsor backed activity accelerating versus strategic: YES
But:
Latest (4/29/2026) AAII Investor Sentiment is Bullish 38.1% | Neutral 22.2% | Bearish 39.7% not extreme bulliish yet
Latest Fear & Greed Index at 68% GREED not EXTREME GREED yet
How high could it go???
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent as John Maynard Keynes said.
So think hard before you short it now!!!
My conclusion: we are in a late cycle stage with a high probabilty of a blow off top and nobody knows when the music stops even John Tuld not 😊
Uhm, wow. Thanks for calling this out.
When you say Amazon and Meta cash flow have disappeared, do you mean because they are spending it on data center buildout?
Yes
Good write up but what is this derivative product to hedge the AI supercycle … just in case